China Considers One-Time Subsidy of $14,000 per Child to Boost Fertility Rates

In recent years, China's fertility policies have undergone multiple adjustments, from the "single two-child" policy to the "full two-child" policy, and finally to the "three-child" policy. The first two adjustments released long-term pent-up demand for second children, and fertility rates and birth populations briefly rebounded. However, the "three-child" policy has not brought about the expected rebound in fertility rates.

According to data from the seventh national population census in 2020, the progressive fertility rate from never having a child to having one child is 88%, from one child to two children is 45%, and from two children to three or more is approximately 8%. In 2022, China's birth population was 9.56 million, with the proportion of first, second, and third or more children being 46.1%, 38.9%, and 15.0%, respectively.

To address the issue of low fertility rates, experts argue that fertility support policies should focus on supporting first-time parents, as having a first child is the foundation of fertility rates. From a social public policy perspective, the fertility support policy system should be perfected to treat each birth and each child fairly and justly, regardless of birth order, and provide corresponding subsidies and benefits.

In addition to childcare subsidies, some provinces and cities have also introduced social security subsidies for first-time parents. For example, Jiangsu Province has expanded its subsidy standard for enterprise payments for female employees' maternity leave to include first-time parents, providing a 50% subsidy. The government work report also proposes the development of integrated childcare services and the provision of more public childcare services, as well as the gradual implementation of free pre-school education.

Population economist and Ctrip Chairman Liang Jianzhang recommends that, in addition to cash subsidies, tax breaks, housing subsidies, and universal childcare, other measures such as flexible working arrangements and equal parental leave should be implemented to alleviate the time burden on families. Specifically, he suggests providing a monthly subsidy of 1,000 yuan for the first child, 2,000 yuan for the second child, and 3,000 yuan for the third child and above, with corresponding reductions in social security and income tax.

The introduction of childcare subsidies and other policies has provided new hope for boosting fertility rates, but experts point out that the implementation and execution of these policies still face many challenges. The effectiveness of these policies requires continuous investment and effort from multiple parties. Experts stress that a good policy must have good implementation and supervision mechanisms to be effective. The government needs to continue to increase investment, strengthen interdepartmental cooperation, and perfect supervision mechanisms to ensure that policies can truly be implemented and produce long-term effects.

Promoting birth and increasing the birth rate is a long-term process that requires patience, persistence, and confidence. The government needs to continue to work on perfecting the birth support policy system, increasing investment, and strengthening supervision mechanisms to ensure that policies can truly be effective and produce long-term effects.