Global Population Decline: Over 97% of Nations Predicted to Face Depopulation by 2100
According to recent research published in the journal The Lancet, by 2050, the population of three-quarters of countries worldwide is projected to decrease. By the end of this century, the population of almost all nations is expected to decline. A team of over 200 international researchers involved in the study stated that the fertility rate in half of the countries has now fallen to a level that is unable to sustain their current population size. The world is anticipated to face both a 'baby boom' in some countries and a baby drought in others simultaneously. The study reports that by 2050, the population of approximately two-thirds of countries and regions will have decreased. By the end of this century, this ratio is expected to rise to 97%, with 204 countries and territories out of 207 potentially experiencing depopulation. By the end of the century, only a handful of countries, including Samoa, Somalia, Tonga, Niger, Chad, and Tajikistan, are predicted to maintain a fertility rate above 2.1 children per woman. Conversely, the fertility rate in some developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, is projected to continue rising.
22 March 2024
Stan. E. Finkelstein, a senior researcher at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), commented that "we are facing unprecedented social change in the 21st century." The researchers utilized vast amounts of global data on births, deaths, and factors driving population growth to forecast future world population trends. The study predicts that by 2050, two-thirds of countries and regions will have experienced a decrease in population. By the end of this century, this percentage will rise to 97%, with 198 out of 204 countries and territories potentially facing depopulation. At that time, only a few countries with low fertility rates, such as Samoa, Somalia, Tonga, Niger, Chad, and Tajikistan, will likely maintain a fertility rate above 2.1 children per woman. Meanwhile, some developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, are expected to see their fertility rates continue to rise.
In response to this study, some Weibo users expressed their agreement with the projected population reduction. One user stated, "I feel China should be around 300 to 400 million people, the initial population after the founding of our country is enough; too many people is not a good thing." There were also those who joked about not living to see the end of the century, with another user commenting, "Never mind, I won't live to see the end of the century." Others pointed out the potential challenges that may arise from the anticipated demographic shift.
One user said, "In the past few years, incidents have come one after another. Who dares to have children anymore?" The Lancet journal is known for publishing research predictions in collaboration with the US-based IHME. The graph provided by this study shows that the population data from various countries, including South Korea and China's Taiwan, are generally consistent with recent data from the CIA.
However, countries ranked at the bottom include South Korea, China's Taiwan, Singapore, Ukraine, China's Hong Kong, and China's Macau. This recent news follows closely on the heels of previous stories discussing similar topics. Some of these stories include investigations into population control measures, reports on government policies aimed at managing population growth, and analyses of the potential economic and social impacts of a shrinking population on various countries. In summary, the research published in The Lancet suggests that the world is at the cusp of a significant demographic shift, with many countries expected to see their populations decline dramatically over the next few decades. While some nations may benefit from a smaller population, others may face challenges in terms of economic growth and social cohesion. As such, governments worldwide are likely to closely monitor these population trends and consider implementing policies to address the potential consequences of this projected shift.
